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Australian Federal Election Predictions: 5 things that will happen in the July 2 vote

Rippa Staff 1 Jul 2016
  • What will happen at the Federal Election
  • Our five predictions from the betting markets

Victory looks assured for the Coalition with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull set to remain in government after the July 2 Federal Election, but what else will happen?

The actual result of the election looks done and dusted before the #AusVotes polls have even opened on Saturday morning.

But while a Coalition victory is an unbackable $1.08 in Sportsbet's Federal Election betting markets, there are still plenty of opportunities to find some value odds.

Here are our five predictions for the 2016 Federal Election:

1. Coalition to win

If you like to lump on a safe bet then just back the Coalition to win. It's better than bank interest after all!

2. Will there be a hung parliament - No

Such is the likelihood of a clear victory for Turnbull and the Coalition, this bet makes perfect sense. It's a slightly better option than just backing the Coalition for victory in terms of odds, and the polls suggest there is no way Labor can pull off a surprise on Federal Election day.

3. Coalition to win Hindmarsh seat

It's a competitive three-way fight for Hindmarsh but the smart money has come for the Coalition's Matt Williams to pip Steve Georganas (Labor) and Daniel Kirk (NXT) to the seat and it represents a value bet despite it expected to out on the closest votes.

4. Total Voter Turnout - Under 92%

With the Federal Election result effectively decided before the polls are open, the opportunity to cast a deciding vote is lessened and that might actually lower turnout on Saturday. 93%-93.49% is the most likely turnout, but it is worth chancing the outsider of the field of under 92% at the odds.

5. Time of Concession Speech - 11pm–11.59pm

It should be Bill Shorten making the concession speech if the odds are correct and a Coalition victory happens. But don't expect that to be too early. A speech between 10pm and 10.59pm is predicted but we think it could drag on and happen an hour later.




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Australian Federal Election Predictions: 5 things that will happen in the July 2 vote

Victory looks assured for the Coalition with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull set to remain in government after the July 2 Federal Election, but what else will happen?

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