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Melbourne Cup Tips - Using history to help land the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner

  • Put a line through internationals that have not had a run in Australia at their previous start
  • Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate form still a key factor
  • Six-year-olds have won five of the past six Melbourne Cups
Melbourne Cup

Australia's most famous horse race, the Melbourne Cup (3200m), is set to run and won on run on Tuesday November 1 and the $6 million race shapes as another classic. 

The Cup has grown into an international event, attracting gallopers from all parts of the world but finding a winner can be tough as it brings together so many and varied formlines from both Australia‚Äôs best gallopers as well as the internationals. 

We have had a look through the recent trends in the race in order to take some of the guesswork out for you and there are a few things you should consider when trying to find a winner.

Since the year 2000, there have been only three favourites to have won the event.  Fiorente was successful in 2013 as a $7 popular elect, whilst the mighty mare, Makybe Diva, looked after punters in both 2004 and 2005 when starting as favourite. 

This year the Cox Plate runner-up, Hartnell, is a $5 favourite with William Hill in early markets, while Oceanographer and Jameka are both at $8. Bondi Beach at $9 is the only other runner under double figure odds.  

The average winning price of the winners since 2000 is $18 but that figure is inflated somewhat after Prince Of Penzance scored at $101.  Take Michelle Payne's winner out of the equation and the price since 2000 is $12.50. 

Horses in the $10 - $20 price bracket include Almandin at $15, Heartbreak City ($16) Big Orange ($16), Wicklow Brave ($16) and Exospheric ($19), 

The most successful age group in the Cup since 2000 has been the six-year-olds. Gallopers aged six have won nine of the past 16 Melbourne Cups including five of the past six. Horses aged six this year are Big Orange, Hartnell, Gallante and Assign. 

For fans of Jameka, who is aged 4, there have been three horses aged four to have won the cup since 2000 including Shocking (2009), Efficient (2007) and Ethereal (2001).  Ethereal is one of two mares to have won the cup since 2000, with the other being the three-time winner, Makybe Diva. 

The Handicap conditions of the race have seen horses with a variety of weights win the Cup. The average weight of the winners has been a tick under 54kg and this year, Heartbreak City and Sir John Hawkweed carry 54kg, while Excess Knowledge has 53kg.  

Despite the influx of internationally trained gallopers to take part in the cup over the last decade, an interesting statistic is that all winners since 2000 have had their last start in Australia prior to winning the cup. No raider has won the Melbourne Cup at their first start in Australia (in that preparation). 

This year there are six gallopers who have had their last race start overseas and they are Big Orange, Curren Mitotic, Bondi Beach, Wicklow Brave, Heartbreak City, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number. 

The most successful lead up races have been the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and the Cox Plate (2040m) which have both provided four of the past 15 winners. Three winners have come out of the Geelong Cup (2400m) and two from the Lexus Stakes (2500m). 

This year's Caulfield Cup saw Jameka salute, while Exospheric ran 3rd from Almoonqith (4th), while Hartnell finished runner up in the Cox Plate. 

Shocking (2009) was the last winner to come out of the Lexus Stakes. The Stuart Appleby-trained Oceanographer was an impressive winner of that lead this year and was also 3rd in the Geelong Cup behind Qewy and Grey Lion. 

It is also interesting to note that 11 of the past 16 winners have been placed at their previous start before the Melbourne Cup and seven of those have won their last start.

A lot of speculation in the lead up to the race has been how much of a factor the barrier draw will play. Whilst it is preferable to draw in, winners have come from a variety of positions. Eight winners have come from double digit barriers including Shocking and Brew, who drew 21 and 22 when they won the cup. 

Protectionist won from 10 last year while the previous two winners in Fiorente and Green Moon jumped from five. Barrier 11 has also been a lucky spot to be in recent times with international gallopers Dunaden (2011) and Americain (2010) jumping from that gate. 

This year, Bondi Beach jumps from 5, whilst Oceanographer is in 11. The favourite in the race, Hartnell, has drawn 12, the same barrier that last years's unsuccessful favourite, Fame Game, drew. Last year, Prince Of Penzance came from No.1 and Beautiful Romance jumps from that position on Tuesday. 

The most successful jockeys in the Melbourne Cup since 2000 have been Glen Boss and Damien Oliver. Boss was on Makybe Diva when she won three in a row while Damien Oliver famously rode Media Puzzle to victory in 2002 and was on Fiorente in 2013. This year, Oliver takes the ride on Exospheric, while Boss steers Grey Lion

No trainer has won the race twice since the year 2000 except for Lee Freedman, who trained Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005. Freedman has now teamed up with his brother Anthony and they train Our Ivanhowe and Exospheric. 

Billionaire owner Lloyd Williams will be trying to secure his fifth Melbourne Cup win and his third in the last nine years. Williams has Bondi Beach, Gallante, Almandin and Assign in the race.


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Melbourne Cup Tips - Using history to help land the 2016 Melbourne Cup winner

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